28 comments

  • YossarianFrPrez 23 minutes ago
    Reactions to this are a bit curious. It's a satirical comment on how (presumably) initially well-intentioned younger founder-types get swept up in / by perverse incentives. The implication is that younger people who are still figuring out who they are and coming into their own may be more susceptible to these kinds of incentive traps.

    The first section that showcases the fraud that has been committed is something I have no problem with, just as I have no issue with web3isgoinggreat.com. The "at risk" section is based on a mathematical/algorithmic joke. This is explained by the "methodology" section below it, which makes it clear that the equation used to calculate "risk" here is not entirely unlike the Drake equation for the probability of extra-terrestrial life.[1]

    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation

    • rdevilla 4 minutes ago
      It can be very difficult to say no to these incentives when they are presented.
    • estearum 2 minutes ago
      Eh, I think selection effects are more prevalent than an earnest good faith actor who got swept up into perverse incentives.

      Forbes 30u30 is a clarion call for the most ambitiously Machiavellian among us.

      They’re not subject to any different incentives than the rest of us. But they’d certainly have a higher rate of sociopaths and more garden variety Machiavellis than genpop.

    • refulgentis 17 minutes ago
      I think it’s because it’s slightly obvious it was vibe(coded && written).

      Starts looking like low effort libel, punching down, more than some clever joke x a statistics exercise

      Put another way: the Drake equation, this ain’t.

      • afavour 13 minutes ago
        Punching down? To companies worth twenties of billions of dollars?

        The impulse to label everything a “startup” and thus a smolbean little guy is fascinating.

      • DetroitThrow 1 minute ago
        You misunderstand what "punching down" or "libel" mean.
      • Blackthorn 14 minutes ago
        Punching down??? These people are silicon valley founders.
  • seamossfet 1 hour ago
    Some of these really don't make sense. The implication that Cursor is a fraudulent company is a little weird considering they actually have real users.

    Like sure, is it a VS code fork with agents stapled to it? Yes. But are they on the same scale as most of the people mentioned? Ehh probably not.

    It reads more like a hit piece from someone with a grudge against random SF companies than anything else.

    • afavour 16 minutes ago
      > The implication that Cursor is a fraudulent company is a little weird

      To my reading the premise of the site is pretty straightforward: 30 Under 30 is a warning sign, not a positive signal. Therefore, as a company with 4 founders who were in 30 Under 30, Cursor is a risk.

      It’s a silly little satire site, there’s a danger of reading into it too deeply.

    • throwaway85825 40 minutes ago
      It looks like the score number is just the number of times featured multiplied by a constant.
    • enoint 55 minutes ago
      What is a “satirical risk analysis” and am I to believe that the bottom section is built from anonymous submissions?
    • throw03172019 58 minutes ago
      They should have left off the last section. No reason to shame founders if no wrong doing
      • reaperducer 47 minutes ago
        No reason to shame founders if no wrong doing

        If there's no wrong-doing, then there's nothing of which to be ashamed.

  • iddan 20 minutes ago
    The regular ones are okay. The watchlist is diabolical. Unvoted as soon as I saw the watchlist.
  • czhu12 46 minutes ago
    Would say, the 30 under 30 list has like 600 people, not 30. So the fraud rate is quite a bit lower than headlines of seemingly 2 / 30. Its more like 2 / 600, which is maybe the baseline fraud rate?
    • throwaway85825 44 minutes ago
      Doesn't matter. It's always been based on vibes, now the vibe is fraud.
  • sixtyj 17 minutes ago
    Nice work.

    In section The 30u30 Risk Index there is some css bug, text is in long lines outside of boxes.

  • dsr_ 1 hour ago
    More useful for most people: is the company you are considering doing business with run by one of these fine upstanding folks?
  • oefrha 45 minutes ago
    > Risk Index

    > Mercor — 3x on 30u30

    Interesting, I only know this company because they’re the leading spammer hitting my inbox in the AI job board category.

  • CobrastanJorji 33 minutes ago
    Seems like there should be an incarcerated stamp for people who were in jail for fraud but later got out, like Shkreli.
    • throwaway85825 28 minutes ago
      How about a fraud prison tat? Murderers have teardrops.
      • tyre 23 minutes ago
        To be specific, not all teardrops indicate that the person is a murderer. The teardrop is specifically in remembrance of someone else who was killed.

        An empty teardrop indicates the death hasn’t been avenged; a half-filled one that someone else killed the killer; and only a full teardrop means that person killed the killer.

    • worik 29 minutes ago
      Tattooed on their forehead?
  • brcmthrowaway 1 hour ago
    The Nikola founder, and Anthony Levandowski for that matter (seems to have gone under the radar), have got to be the most egregious case of corruption and pay-for-play. It's so depressing that no one can do anything about it.
    • itsankur 54 minutes ago
      Levandowski is back with TK at Atoms
      • misiti3780 7 minutes ago
        it's clear now his self-driving technology was never going to work at uber.
  • rogerkirkness 48 minutes ago
    I've met several of the people on the first few pages on the watch list, and they are among the sketchiest Silicon Valley people I've met. The criteria are plausible.
  • dancerofaran 1 hour ago
    the stupidity to this is that it takes a meme and treats it like facts

    yes, numerous 30u30 have committed frauds, and yes this list is a paid list. but it's also full of other people who have been duped by what this list represents. compounding memes at the expense of truth just creates more problems than it solves

    • arjun810 45 minutes ago
      it’s not a paid list. Or at least it wasn’t, can’t say with certainty it didn’t change.
      • yreg 19 minutes ago
        I know several 30u30 people in my country's list and I highly doubt they paid for anything.
      • buckle8017 34 minutes ago
        Some people on the list likely paid to be on it. They likely didn't pay Forbes the company though and maybe the payment was just invites to parties.
  • cmiles8 1 hour ago
    It’s amusing and bemusing how these lists have become so associated with grifters and fraudsters.

    It’s gotten to the point that legit folks are wanting to steer clear of them simply because of the negative stigma with being seen as an XuX grifter.

  • dwedge 58 minutes ago
    How old is this site, because most of the reference links are dead links
    • paxys 58 minutes ago
      Probably ran out of tokens halfway through
  • Lerc 57 minutes ago
    What is a person who makes a site like this thinking about when they do it?

    What is their motivation? What are they trying to achieve?

    • afavour 52 minutes ago
      They’re pointing out fraud. Is that a bad thing now?

      I think it’s fair game to point out that the the 30 under 30 hype list is just that: hype. And there’s often very little substance underneath hype. And sometimes there’s outright deceit under it.

      • AIorNot 36 minutes ago
        well why was Cursor included amongst known fraudsters.. that just seems mean and warrentless
        • afavour 34 minutes ago
          In the section that says:

          100% SATIRICAL — SCORES ARE FICTIONAL AND DO NOT REFLECT REAL-WORLD FRAUD RISK

          ?

          Personally I think it’s not a bad thing to be a little skeptical about brand new companies with double digit billion dollar valuations. If they’re legit they can more than withstand a little satirical dig.

    • busymom0 35 minutes ago
      I think the site likely started off as a meme. However it also seems to have a bit of a "hit piece" vibe to it in the last section
  • jwpapi 56 minutes ago
    Is the formula based on the actual probabilities. I’m pretty sure you could do that, but it’s not clear it it.
  • moomoo11 1 hour ago
    I wouldn’t work for a company where the founder/ceo was younger than 35 and had zero real world experience.
  • AIorNot 37 minutes ago
    I'm all for the big names and ones that have proven issues and companies like Delve to be shamed

    But Cursor? Why they are operating in a risky space on tech that is all new what ethical things did they do to warrent inclusion in this shame board?

    Lets not tarnish folks either -cancel culture is worrisome there

  • AIorNot 34 minutes ago
    We're Missing the biggest frauds of all time: https://www.whitehouse.gov/

    When your president is a complete fraud and con man, the whole country is tarnished - its too late for America to bounce back, we are in end stage capitalism now that Trump and his cronies are siphoning money out of the boundaries his administration establish -no different than Putin and his oligrachs except that America still has some protections in place..

  • firekey_browser 1 hour ago
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  • worik 30 minutes ago
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  • lokinork 50 minutes ago
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  • lasky 50 minutes ago
    [flagged]
  • raincole 1 hour ago
    [flagged]
    • afavour 49 minutes ago
      I don’t know, it reads more like a “told you so” than envy to me. I don’t get the impression the author wants to be these people.

      “Told you so” can be quite a tranquil feeling.

    • spencerflem 56 minutes ago
      Why do you think they’re jealous of fraudsters?
      • paxys 55 minutes ago
        What fraud have any of the companies under "risk index" committed?
        • nutjob2 38 minutes ago
          Which bit of "risk index" are you not getting?

          Alternatively: how are you in a position to claim they're 100% not frauds?

          • paxys 31 minutes ago
            So I have to prove they aren't fraud otherwise they are fraud by default. Makes perfect sense.
        • spencerflem 48 minutes ago
          Why do you think they’re jealous of future fraudsters?

          But like genuinely, this sort of take confuses me so much. It’s like, if someone made fun of Putin and the consensus was that they’re just jealous they don’t have a country of their own to run.

  • spullara 51 minutes ago
    percentage wise they have more billionaires than frauds on the list, at least so far.
  • NewsaHackO 1 hour ago
    This seems extremely mean spirited.
    • TallGuyShort 1 hour ago
      Some of the comments are unnecessary, but things like this:

      > wiping $40B and several people's life savings

      Okay, you shouldn't dump your life savings into a cryptocurrency that claims to be doing innovative things in the first 2 days. But if that's true that guy ruined multiple people's life's work. That's a bit mean-spirited, wouldn't you say?

      • gmd63 1 hour ago
        To put it into context, 40 billion dollars is about 22,000 average lifetime earnings of a man in the US.
      • NewsaHackO 1 hour ago
        Did you read the page? The first portion is whatever, but then it lists random founders with no record of doing anything nefarious based on a random ranking list. It's literally bullying.
        • ForHackernews 57 minutes ago
          Correct. It's abusive to apply probabilistic AI models to real human individuals and penalize them for things they haven't even done yet with no recourse.

          I hope you will remember this the next time your employer asks you to build an AI moderation, credit evaluation, or anti-fraud system that will harm much larger numbers of innocent people far than one mean website.

    • nutjob2 41 minutes ago
      Yes, but so? It provides a modicum of balance versus relentless hype by founders and the doting media. Even if not true it might remind people to have some healthy skepticism. The fact that your reflex is to find it "extremely mean spirited" speaks volumes. Everyone else in life gets shat apron because of other people's unscrupulous behavior, why are these people special? People should assume that there is a good chance any business venture is a fraud.

      Ultimately it's one guy's opinion. It's not like he's going to ruin these people's lives or businesses.

  • paxys 1 hour ago
    Forbes "30 under 30" actually has like 600 people a year in 20 categories, and that's just in the USA. Add in international lists and the number rises to well over 1000. Since 2011 there have probably been, what, 10-15 thousand total "honorees"? ~12 instances of fraud in total is probably significantly below the corporate average.

    And the "risk index" is idiotic. Basically just companies the creator doesn't like, or is jealous of.

    • enoint 49 minutes ago
      There was a running total of $18.5 B in fraud from inductees. That’s about half of the size of card fraud. Maybe 2% of worldwide fraud.
    • rorylawless 42 minutes ago
      Is "30 under 30" one of those schemes that require people to put themselves forward and maybe pay a fee? I've seen a bunch of "awards" (particularly for companies) that follow the same model.
    • ForHackernews 1 hour ago
      Some might say a list of "30" that in fact includes thousands of people every year is itself a bit fishy.